1. The economy. If it recovers, Obama’s in. If it goes into another recession, he’s toast.
2. Wars. If the death toll rises substantially anywhere, that hurts Obama.
3. The ideological extremism of the Republican nominee.
4. The Supreme Court’s ruling on health care reform.
5. Voter turnout efforts.
6. Redistricting. This will affect quite a few House members’ seats.
7. Voter eligibility rules
8. The price of gas
9. Illegal immigration
10 Social Security
–compiled by Seth Masket, associate professor of political science